As per last post before travelling, markets have drifted lower without breaking 10430 which is the most recent low during July, only couple thousand away from October 2008 low at 8850.

Back to short term picture, in the last post, I was looking for a short term rally before we continue back lower. I do believe it is only matter of time before we see 10430 broken to the downside.

Since markets have revealed little more now, we can start painting some short term targets. Therefore, given that 10430 holds further, we can look to an advance to  12200 +/- before we resume downtrend lower by some time by end August. Below the updated image of the chart posted on July 22nd.

As I will be away for next two weeks, expect no further updates before second week August.

We are still searching for a bottom across commodities. A major Event was the drop in Gold of about 50 bucks in one day. With likely a long term bottom is in place or might have one last drop before we conclude the decline from 2011!

In Nickel, we are looking at similar scenario.  We are still trying to locate the bottom that would conclude the decline from 2011 (although technically this correction already started in early 2010). In any rate, on short term I would be looking for most recent low at 10430 to hold grounds for now, with the question remains open whether a more sustainable start has begun or we might have one last drop to lower figures later this summer. Although still a bit early to give specific number. Below I present possible paths for both scenarios with attached chart showing the bearish scenario.

1- I would be looking for prices to decline into next week to 11000 +/- before we see another rally higher to 12500 – 12700 into first two weeks of August. After which we would see a resumption in downtrend to lower numbers indicated in earlier posts.

2- However, if we see a more sustained and bullish rise, and we break 13680 to the upside we need to focus our attention onto next level. It would then be worthwhile considering a more bullish scenario which should indicate that price would hold above 11980 during the course of August and eventually break though 14585. Only a break through 14585 to the upside would put a sure seal on a new uptrend higher and would allow us to start buying on dips for medium term positions.

I would still need to consider the bearish scenario on short term, since as of now there is not enough evidence to conclude the decline that has been in place since end 2014.  Exciting times indeed, maybe 2015 will not end on a bad note like its predecessors after all!

I have been keeping silent for the past week, as I have been waiting for signs of conclusion of downtrend. Yest the early action is not very encouraging and forewarns that there might be further declines to be seen. The price increase from 10430  to most recent high of 11875 still looks like an advance against the main trend more than actual start of a new trend.

However, as of now, I am turning neutral awaiting further evidence to decide on a direction. Clearly, taking out key levels of 12240 and then 12965 would indicate a reversal in trend to the upside and further gains into the rest of the year.

Prices have recovered from yesterday’s lows, and is currently trading higher having hit 11300 already.  Yet the overall structure is still not encouraging enough to switch our position from bearish to bullish. I can see this “correction possibly hitting 11400 before faltering and heading south again.

In order for us to change our views, we need a decisive break above 11600 or alternatively, any declines in price should not break 10430!

Remain out, watch and wait for the pullback to decide on further action.  Again, we are close to a bottom, just looking for signals from the market to confirm a bottom in place.

In our last post, we have warned of further declines to come and the price did not disappoint. Prices have today broken most recent low and printed 10440 overnight. We have been calling for a first target at 10100 +/-  and possibly 9690 +/-. This so far remains valid especially that there is not even one single “strong” evidence pointing otherwise.

If no surprises, look ahead for lower numbers to be printed in the next 10 trading days with short pauses on the way. Also, Stay alert for a reversal signal that after all, might not be all too far away despite the bearish theme.