Good Morning Traders!

It has been a month since our last post! Mainly due to the not so eventful price action. Prices traded in range throughout Sep. In our last post, I was looking for price to tick a little bit higher before resuming larger downtrend.

Price did travel higher after the post however peaked at 10475 and then drifted lower over the course of 12 days to 9605 to again go higher and peak at 10595.  Price somehow worked out as foretasted to hold above low of 9215 and peak by end Sep (price peaked on Oct 1st) but certainly momentum was weaker than expected and price did not come close enough to 11000.

That said it remains open to be seen if 9215 could hold through October as well. I don’t have my hopes high on this possibility. Fruther range trading expected in October.

It has been about 10 days since my last post. Markets have not done anything to surprise (despite sharp declines seen and thereafter reversals).

For Nickel after the overnight swift crash from 10400 to 9100 and thereafter recovery to 10600 on August 12 (all this happened when most of western hemisphere was sleeping), I was looking for a retest of 9100. Price came very close and again got rejected at 9215! With the highest high so far at 10220 on August 28 and looks like we are about to break that soon today.

I am still considering two possible scenarios (as one should always do!), the optimistic and the less optimistic :). In my last post, I have mentioned that I would be looking for a recovery by End Q3/early Q4. It seems that this recovery is well under way and I am calling for 9215 to hold for a while. However, I have been questioning whether this recovery will hold through the cold winter. This is yet to be seen. The optimistic scenario is that this recovery would continue throughout the winter and into 2016 hence announcing an end to the horrible decline so far. The less optimistic would see this recover falter and we hit new lows during winter, however this would put a sure end to the 4 year bear market.

First chart is less optimistic route and the second chart is the optimistic route (one of possible variations). I will be posting specifics on numbers and levels along as things develop.

We are at critical levels across several instruments. While most world equities have either started a good sized decline or just on the verge of doing so. Commodities still struggle to find their place. Regarding base metals, several signals are pointing to the exhaustion of the long term down trend, indicating a turning point should not be all that far off.

However we are still to await for a confirmation of a new uptrend. On short term we might be heading slightly lower before we head back up into early Q4. However as it looks now, the second half of Q4 will be a rather bloody one going into Jan 2016.

If the short term run expected in early Q3 extends, I will be more than happy to announce an end to the bloodshed.  This in light of available info still remains questionable.

As per last post before travelling, markets have drifted lower without breaking 10430 which is the most recent low during July, only couple thousand away from October 2008 low at 8850.

Back to short term picture, in the last post, I was looking for a short term rally before we continue back lower. I do believe it is only matter of time before we see 10430 broken to the downside.

Since markets have revealed little more now, we can start painting some short term targets. Therefore, given that 10430 holds further, we can look to an advance to  12200 +/- before we resume downtrend lower by some time by end August. Below the updated image of the chart posted on July 22nd.

As I will be away for next two weeks, expect no further updates before second week August.

We are still searching for a bottom across commodities. A major Event was the drop in Gold of about 50 bucks in one day. With likely a long term bottom is in place or might have one last drop before we conclude the decline from 2011!

In Nickel, we are looking at similar scenario.  We are still trying to locate the bottom that would conclude the decline from 2011 (although technically this correction already started in early 2010). In any rate, on short term I would be looking for most recent low at 10430 to hold grounds for now, with the question remains open whether a more sustainable start has begun or we might have one last drop to lower figures later this summer. Although still a bit early to give specific number. Below I present possible paths for both scenarios with attached chart showing the bearish scenario.

1- I would be looking for prices to decline into next week to 11000 +/- before we see another rally higher to 12500 – 12700 into first two weeks of August. After which we would see a resumption in downtrend to lower numbers indicated in earlier posts.

2- However, if we see a more sustained and bullish rise, and we break 13680 to the upside we need to focus our attention onto next level. It would then be worthwhile considering a more bullish scenario which should indicate that price would hold above 11980 during the course of August and eventually break though 14585. Only a break through 14585 to the upside would put a sure seal on a new uptrend higher and would allow us to start buying on dips for medium term positions.

I would still need to consider the bearish scenario on short term, since as of now there is not enough evidence to conclude the decline that has been in place since end 2014.  Exciting times indeed, maybe 2015 will not end on a bad note like its predecessors after all!