As I will be away for next two weeks, expect no further updates before second week August.
We are still searching for a bottom across commodities. A major Event was the drop in Gold of about 50 bucks in one day. With likely a long term bottom is in place or might have one last drop before we conclude the decline from 2011!
In Nickel, we are looking at similar scenario. We are still trying to locate the bottom that would conclude the decline from 2011 (although technically this correction already started in early 2010). In any rate, on short term I would be looking for most recent low at 10430 to hold grounds for now, with the question remains open whether a more sustainable start has begun or we might have one last drop to lower figures later this summer. Although still a bit early to give specific number. Below I present possible paths for both scenarios with attached chart showing the bearish scenario.
1- I would be looking for prices to decline into next week to 11000 +/- before we see another rally higher to 12500 – 12700 into first two weeks of August. After which we would see a resumption in downtrend to lower numbers indicated in earlier posts.
2- However, if we see a more sustained and bullish rise, and we break 13680 to the upside we need to focus our attention onto next level. It would then be worthwhile considering a more bullish scenario which should indicate that price would hold above 11980 during the course of August and eventually break though 14585. Only a break through 14585 to the upside would put a sure seal on a new uptrend higher and would allow us to start buying on dips for medium term positions.
I would still need to consider the bearish scenario on short term, since as of now there is not enough evidence to conclude the decline that has been in place since end 2014. Exciting times indeed, maybe 2015 will not end on a bad note like its predecessors after all!