Dubai Financial Market General Index has undergone a remarkable run up to 2005 into highs of 8544 and has ever since not seen these numbers even at the heights of the property bubble during 2007/2008. While the index crashed along international equity markets, however it didn’t manage to stage a recovery post 2009 as the S&P did. Only in Jan 2012, did the index hit bottom at 1294 and rallied slightly over 400% into 5425 in May 2014 which so far remains unchallenged.
I will start off by saying considering the price action from 2005 into the lows of 2012 and then subsequent rally, I am Medium Term (few years) bullish, while long term is yet to be seen as I lack enough data to judge the outlook. In any case, once the ongoing correction since May 2014 is confirmed as done, I would expect another move that is at least the size of the run from 2012 into 2014.
The market however may take several paths and variations on short term. In the view presented below, it depicts that the index has been undergoing a complex correction known under Elliott Wave terms as double Zig Zag, which indicates further weakness ahead into the months to come. This view is confirmed as soon as price breaks 3241.35 to the downside. This is the preferred count especially considering the expected weakness in Oil prices. Further several technical indicators are pointing to further weakness on short term which most likely will lead to breaking the level of 3241.35. The alternative count is given lower priority at this stage and would come into play only if price does manage to hold above 3241.35 and we see price rallying back above 3739 into the zone of 3900 +/-. Only a decisive close above 4253.28 would confirm a multi months advance has been established.
Below I present the weekly and daily counts with potential price target zone over the next few months if presented scenario proves right.
DFMGI Weekly Count
DFMGI Daily Count