Medium Term Outlook Nickel, May 2nd 2016

In last article dating slightly over 6 months, it was forewarned that the downtrend might carry into early 2016 but not much beyond.  Now in 2016, here we are having seen the worst and prices are on the rise. Every dip is being bought which indicates a change in the sentiment towards a more bullish outlook. The worst news was happening in Dec 2015 and early 2016 on fundamental side, which only added to my conviction that the trend is wrapping up. Now stories started to look different in the news. It is sometimes amusing to observe how news fits the price action and really tell you nothing more than what you can already see in the price. News should be called olds as there is really nothing new about news.

Below is an updated chart on Nickel showing the downtrend sequence as complete and over (lines in red are the line drawn 6 months ago indicating future direction). The new uptrend is still shaky and fragile. So while a bullish view is favored, any sudden changes can reverse our short term outlook. However as long as key levels are held, the new baby bull is safe. The key level in Nickel for now is 8240, any break below that level would negate the immediate price rise. On the positive side, any price acceleration beyond 10700 would confirm the trend change to more bullish outlook that could take prices to 30000 and beyond in couple years to come. On the daily chart, the yellow lines indicate the possible price path over the month of May and sebsquent months. Again, the bullish view remains intact ONLY if 8240 is not broken to the downside.

Nickel Weekly Count

Nickelweekly020516

Nickel Daily Count

NickelDaily020516

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