Medium Term Outlook Nickel, May 2nd 2016

In last article dating slightly over 6 months, it was forewarned that the downtrend might carry into early 2016 but not much beyond.  Now in 2016, here we are having seen the worst and prices are on the rise. Every dip is being bought which indicates a change in the sentiment towards a more bullish outlook. The worst news was happening in Dec 2015 and early 2016 on fundamental side, which only added to my conviction that the trend is wrapping up. Now stories started to look different in the news. It is sometimes amusing to observe how news fits the price action and really tell you nothing more than what you can already see in the price. News should be called olds as there is really nothing new about news.

Below is an updated chart on Nickel showing the downtrend sequence as complete and over (lines in red are the line drawn 6 months ago indicating future direction). The new uptrend is still shaky and fragile. So while a bullish view is favored, any sudden changes can reverse our short term outlook. However as long as key levels are held, the new baby bull is safe. The key level in Nickel for now is 8240, any break below that level would negate the immediate price rise. On the positive side, any price acceleration beyond 10700 would confirm the trend change to more bullish outlook that could take prices to 30000 and beyond in couple years to come. On the daily chart, the yellow lines indicate the possible price path over the month of May and sebsquent months. Again, the bullish view remains intact ONLY if 8240 is not broken to the downside.

Nickel Weekly Count

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Nickel Daily Count

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Nickel short term outlook June 9th 2015

Yesterday, we have been looking for higher price, at the time of writing price was hovering around 13180. Prices jumped nicely by the time for US opening and have so far managed 13520, which is only 80 dollars shy from our idealised  target.

Again, we are at a short term juncture and we should watch price carefully, awaiting price action confirmation that the top is in place. As of this stage we can yet not exclude one more small push of about 100 bucks.

A confirmation of short term change in direction back to the downside is given once prices cross the level of 13350 to the downside.  The resumption of medium term downtrend into the rest of June and probably good time of July would be given once price breaks 12770 to the downside clearing way to break 12510 and reaching our targets of 11500 +/- which should be a base for a longer bull run into the year of 2016.

 

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Short Term Outlook June 8th 2015

Referring to last post on June 3rd, we were expecting that Nickel price would go higher and we didn’t exclude a small draw back before a move in price towards our targets. Price declined  to 12770 from 12945 at the time of posting and then started to rally on June 4th and today already at 13200.

So far, we are still on track towards 13600 +/-.  A less aggressive target would be 13300 +/-, where we could already face a risk of reversal, if exceeded then next target will be 13600 +/- . The shallower slope of this current rise compared to the first leg from 12510, further gives hints to the corrective nature for the rise from 12510 and we would expect another decline to take out 12510 once current correction is finalised.

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Short Term Outlook June 3rd 2015

Nickel Price yesterday declined 12820 as has been expected, then rallied back 13124. However, we have anticipated a slightly deeper decline. That said, we would be now be more inclined to believe that the bottom at 12510 should hold and the next 2 weeks going forward. Targets remain in the range of 13600-13800.  On even shorter term, one can though not exclude for one more dip before the rally happens, although we would favor a nearby rally later today or by tomorrow.

The view remains valid as long as prices hold above 12510.

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Short Term Outlook Nickel 3M LME Contract –

Looking at Recent Peak from May 6th, we were looking at prices to bottom between 12400 and 12600. Prices so far have bottomed at 12510 and have since then rallied to a peak of 13090. Today we are looking for prices to retrace some or all the gain that has been made since 12510.

Looking at the subdivisions of the move from May 6th, we have two possible routes going forward. If price manages to hold ground of 12510 this would indicate that the decline down is complete and we would be looking on further price increases to build by end this week/next week. Target for this are at 13500-13800 expected to be achieved by third/fourth week June.

However, if prices don’t manage to hold ground then expect further decline into mid next week and look for a bottom at 12100-12200. Only afterward we should see a rally going forward into fourth week June/Early July.

In conclusion, key to watch price action today to decide on next move forward. In either case, we are looking for a nearby bottom before we a short term rally.

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