Outlook into 2016 and beyond: Nickel, Copper, Aluminium, Zinc, Lead

No wonder that that past 4 years from the 2011 highs in most of base metals, have been among toughest years seen in a while. The only good news is that probably now, near term future might look brighter. Most of the metals have been going through a correction that has exhausted not only prices, but traders as well. It has been turbulent 4 years that probably are just about to be over.

I say just, as it seems we might still have one more shake into 2016. Below I present my views on the various metals in charts, I would be glad to explain in details with price targets for interested parties. The short red lines on the chart, indicate the probable direction over time and potential price zones without specific targets.

There are multiple possibilities on how to count these charts, I have chosen these specific counts after several amendments, I believe keeping the count simple should work best. Alternative counts would indicate that metals are already in early stages of a new bullish rise having bottomed in August. I would gladly adopt that view, however price action so far leaves room for doubt and hence I have settled for the counts presented below:

Nickel Weekly Count

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Nickel Daily Count

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Copper Weekly Count

CopperWeekly

 

Copper Daily Count

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Aluminium Weekly Count

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Aluminium Daily Count

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Zinc Weekly Count

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Zinc Daily Count

Zincdaily191015

 

Lead Weekly Count

LeadWeekly191015

 

Lead Daily Count

Leaddaily191015

Nickel short term outlook June 9th 2015

Yesterday, we have been looking for higher price, at the time of writing price was hovering around 13180. Prices jumped nicely by the time for US opening and have so far managed 13520, which is only 80 dollars shy from our idealised  target.

Again, we are at a short term juncture and we should watch price carefully, awaiting price action confirmation that the top is in place. As of this stage we can yet not exclude one more small push of about 100 bucks.

A confirmation of short term change in direction back to the downside is given once prices cross the level of 13350 to the downside.  The resumption of medium term downtrend into the rest of June and probably good time of July would be given once price breaks 12770 to the downside clearing way to break 12510 and reaching our targets of 11500 +/- which should be a base for a longer bull run into the year of 2016.

 

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Short Term Outlook June 8th 2015

Referring to last post on June 3rd, we were expecting that Nickel price would go higher and we didn’t exclude a small draw back before a move in price towards our targets. Price declined  to 12770 from 12945 at the time of posting and then started to rally on June 4th and today already at 13200.

So far, we are still on track towards 13600 +/-.  A less aggressive target would be 13300 +/-, where we could already face a risk of reversal, if exceeded then next target will be 13600 +/- . The shallower slope of this current rise compared to the first leg from 12510, further gives hints to the corrective nature for the rise from 12510 and we would expect another decline to take out 12510 once current correction is finalised.

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Short Term Outlook June 3rd 2015

Nickel Price yesterday declined 12820 as has been expected, then rallied back 13124. However, we have anticipated a slightly deeper decline. That said, we would be now be more inclined to believe that the bottom at 12510 should hold and the next 2 weeks going forward. Targets remain in the range of 13600-13800.  On even shorter term, one can though not exclude for one more dip before the rally happens, although we would favor a nearby rally later today or by tomorrow.

The view remains valid as long as prices hold above 12510.

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Short Term Outlook Nickel 3M LME Contract –

Looking at Recent Peak from May 6th, we were looking at prices to bottom between 12400 and 12600. Prices so far have bottomed at 12510 and have since then rallied to a peak of 13090. Today we are looking for prices to retrace some or all the gain that has been made since 12510.

Looking at the subdivisions of the move from May 6th, we have two possible routes going forward. If price manages to hold ground of 12510 this would indicate that the decline down is complete and we would be looking on further price increases to build by end this week/next week. Target for this are at 13500-13800 expected to be achieved by third/fourth week June.

However, if prices don’t manage to hold ground then expect further decline into mid next week and look for a bottom at 12100-12200. Only afterward we should see a rally going forward into fourth week June/Early July.

In conclusion, key to watch price action today to decide on next move forward. In either case, we are looking for a nearby bottom before we a short term rally.

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