Medium Term Outlook LME Copper, May 3rd 2016

Revisiting the analysis published on Oct. 19th 2015, copper was expected to make new lows into the new year and thereafter rebound putting an end to the downtrend it has been going through since 2011. An exhausting long 5 years journey of little hope and lots of disappointment. In the charts below red line shows the expected path as drawn in 2015, clearly the forecast was not bearish enough on the short term, as price fell directly into target zone shortly after.

Here we are in 2016 and it seems so far that the call made 6 months ago is translating into reality. Again being in early stages of a trend, things are always open to sudden changes. In Copper key level as of now stands at the Jan 2016 low 4318. In the near term, price is expected to drift lower, however it should not break below 4318. In below charts the possible path identified in yellow lines. In a more bullish scenario price might hold above 4631. A break through¬†5438 would add a confirmation of an established uptrend. As long as price is¬†trading below that figure, an alternate bearish scenario would call for another dip in prices later in 2016. As of now, we keep that on plan “b” basis and it would come into play only if price breaks 4318 to the downside.

Copper Weekly

copperweekly05032016

Copper Daily

Copperdaily03052016

Outlook into 2016 and beyond: Nickel, Copper, Aluminium, Zinc, Lead

No wonder that that past 4 years from the 2011 highs in most of base metals, have been among toughest years seen in a while. The only good news is that probably now, near term future might look brighter. Most of the metals have been going through a correction that has exhausted not only prices, but traders as well. It has been turbulent 4 years that probably are just about to be over.

I say just, as it seems we might still have one more shake into 2016. Below I present my views on the various metals in charts, I would be glad to explain in details with price targets for interested parties. The short red lines on the chart, indicate the probable direction over time and potential price zones without specific targets.

There are multiple possibilities on how to count these charts, I have chosen these specific counts after several amendments, I believe keeping the count simple should work best. Alternative counts would indicate that metals are already in early stages of a new bullish rise having bottomed in August. I would gladly adopt that view, however price action so far leaves room for doubt and hence I have settled for the counts presented below:

Nickel Weekly Count

NickelWeekly191015

 

Nickel Daily Count

NickelDaily191015

 

Copper Weekly Count

CopperWeekly

 

Copper Daily Count

Copperdaily

 

Aluminium Weekly Count

AluminiumWeekly191015

Aluminium Daily Count

AluminiumDaily191015

 

Zinc Weekly Count

ZIncWeekly191015

 

Zinc Daily Count

Zincdaily191015

 

Lead Weekly Count

LeadWeekly191015

 

Lead Daily Count

Leaddaily191015