Revisiting the analysis published on Oct. 19th 2015, copper was expected to make new lows into the new year and thereafter rebound putting an end to the downtrend it has been going through since 2011. An exhausting long 5 years journey of little hope and lots of disappointment. In the charts below red line shows the expected path as drawn in 2015, clearly the forecast was not bearish enough on the short term, as price fell directly into target zone shortly after.
Here we are in 2016 and it seems so far that the call made 6 months ago is translating into reality. Again being in early stages of a trend, things are always open to sudden changes. In Copper key level as of now stands at the Jan 2016 low 4318. In the near term, price is expected to drift lower, however it should not break below 4318. In below charts the possible path identified in yellow lines. In a more bullish scenario price might hold above 4631. A break through 5438 would add a confirmation of an established uptrend. As long as price is trading below that figure, an alternate bearish scenario would call for another dip in prices later in 2016. As of now, we keep that on plan “b” basis and it would come into play only if price breaks 4318 to the downside.