No wonder that that past 4 years from the 2011 highs in most of base metals, have been among toughest years seen in a while. The only good news is that probably now, near term future might look brighter. Most of the metals have been going through a correction that has exhausted not only prices, but traders as well. It has been turbulent 4 years that probably are just about to be over.
I say just, as it seems we might still have one more shake into 2016. Below I present my views on the various metals in charts, I would be glad to explain in details with price targets for interested parties. The short red lines on the chart, indicate the probable direction over time and potential price zones without specific targets.
There are multiple possibilities on how to count these charts, I have chosen these specific counts after several amendments, I believe keeping the count simple should work best. Alternative counts would indicate that metals are already in early stages of a new bullish rise having bottomed in August. I would gladly adopt that view, however price action so far leaves room for doubt and hence I have settled for the counts presented below:
Nickel Weekly Count
Nickel Daily Count
Copper Weekly Count
Copper Daily Count
Aluminium Weekly Count
Aluminium Daily Count
Zinc Weekly Count
Zinc Daily Count
Lead Weekly Count
Lead Daily Count
Good Morning Traders!
It has been a month since our last post! Mainly due to the not so eventful price action. Prices traded in range throughout Sep. In our last post, I was looking for price to tick a little bit higher before resuming larger downtrend.
Price did travel higher after the post however peaked at 10475 and then drifted lower over the course of 12 days to 9605 to again go higher and peak at 10595. Price somehow worked out as foretasted to hold above low of 9215 and peak by end Sep (price peaked on Oct 1st) but certainly momentum was weaker than expected and price did not come close enough to 11000.
That said it remains open to be seen if 9215 could hold through October as well. I don’t have my hopes high on this possibility. Fruther range trading expected in October.
It has been about 10 days since my last post. Markets have not done anything to surprise (despite sharp declines seen and thereafter reversals).
For Nickel after the overnight swift crash from 10400 to 9100 and thereafter recovery to 10600 on August 12 (all this happened when most of western hemisphere was sleeping), I was looking for a retest of 9100. Price came very close and again got rejected at 9215! With the highest high so far at 10220 on August 28 and looks like we are about to break that soon today.
I am still considering two possible scenarios (as one should always do!), the optimistic and the less optimistic :). In my last post, I have mentioned that I would be looking for a recovery by End Q3/early Q4. It seems that this recovery is well under way and I am calling for 9215 to hold for a while. However, I have been questioning whether this recovery will hold through the cold winter. This is yet to be seen. The optimistic scenario is that this recovery would continue throughout the winter and into 2016 hence announcing an end to the horrible decline so far. The less optimistic would see this recover falter and we hit new lows during winter, however this would put a sure end to the 4 year bear market.
First chart is less optimistic route and the second chart is the optimistic route (one of possible variations). I will be posting specifics on numbers and levels along as things develop.
We are at critical levels across several instruments. While most world equities have either started a good sized decline or just on the verge of doing so. Commodities still struggle to find their place. Regarding base metals, several signals are pointing to the exhaustion of the long term down trend, indicating a turning point should not be all that far off.
However we are still to await for a confirmation of a new uptrend. On short term we might be heading slightly lower before we head back up into early Q4. However as it looks now, the second half of Q4 will be a rather bloody one going into Jan 2016.
If the short term run expected in early Q3 extends, I will be more than happy to announce an end to the bloodshed. This in light of available info still remains questionable.
As per last post before travelling, markets have drifted lower without breaking 10430 which is the most recent low during July, only couple thousand away from October 2008 low at 8850.
Back to short term picture, in the last post, I was looking for a short term rally before we continue back lower. I do believe it is only matter of time before we see 10430 broken to the downside.
Since markets have revealed little more now, we can start painting some short term targets. Therefore, given that 10430 holds further, we can look to an advance to 12200 +/- before we resume downtrend lower by some time by end August. Below the updated image of the chart posted on July 22nd.