Nickel Short Term Update June 29th

In our last post on June 22nd, we observed short term strength and warned on possible upwards reaction. Price has in the following days accelerated from 12500 +/- to 12965. However the rise failed to hold and new lows were made today, breaking June 22nd lows at 12435 and shortly after the April lows of 12205!

We are still looking for lower numbers to come, our long awaiting targets remain in the area of 11500 +/-. Judging the structure of the current decline we might be even looking for lower numbers to come.

Short Term Nickel Outlook June 22nd 2015

It has been about two weeks since our last update, as we have been on a business trip. In our last post, we have been looking for a top to form at 13800 +/-, the top was ticked at 13680. Since then, every level lower only confirmed our bearish views, today prices have broken 12510 and ticked so far 12435.

Our primary view, is still looking for the price to drift lower. That said, there are few short-term indications that price decline might have been exhausted.

At this juncture, I would treat the price action with caution. An accelaration of prices lower will confirm we are heading 11500 +/-and possibly lower.

Short Term Nickel Update June 10th 2015

Price came in nicely into set target and has created a rejection signal once it touched 13620, which was the high of yesterday just achieved couple hours after the post.

We are still looking for a top to form, we have indicated yesterday that a break of 13350 would put more pressure on prices for further declines. Decline has so far held at exactly 13350 overnight.  We expect a small upwards rally today from current levels that should not break 13620 and then another leg of decline into area of 13200 +/-. However if 13620 is broken, this would just indicate that there is one more swing into 13800+/- to expect before the correction is done and sealed.

For now we would stay aside to have a confirmation of  the top.

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Nickel short term outlook June 9th 2015

Yesterday, we have been looking for higher price, at the time of writing price was hovering around 13180. Prices jumped nicely by the time for US opening and have so far managed 13520, which is only 80 dollars shy from our idealised  target.

Again, we are at a short term juncture and we should watch price carefully, awaiting price action confirmation that the top is in place. As of this stage we can yet not exclude one more small push of about 100 bucks.

A confirmation of short term change in direction back to the downside is given once prices cross the level of 13350 to the downside.  The resumption of medium term downtrend into the rest of June and probably good time of July would be given once price breaks 12770 to the downside clearing way to break 12510 and reaching our targets of 11500 +/- which should be a base for a longer bull run into the year of 2016.

 

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Short Term Outlook June 8th 2015

Referring to last post on June 3rd, we were expecting that Nickel price would go higher and we didn’t exclude a small draw back before a move in price towards our targets. Price declined  to 12770 from 12945 at the time of posting and then started to rally on June 4th and today already at 13200.

So far, we are still on track towards 13600 +/-.  A less aggressive target would be 13300 +/-, where we could already face a risk of reversal, if exceeded then next target will be 13600 +/- . The shallower slope of this current rise compared to the first leg from 12510, further gives hints to the corrective nature for the rise from 12510 and we would expect another decline to take out 12510 once current correction is finalised.

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Short Term Outlook June 3rd 2015

Nickel Price yesterday declined 12820 as has been expected, then rallied back 13124. However, we have anticipated a slightly deeper decline. That said, we would be now be more inclined to believe that the bottom at 12510 should hold and the next 2 weeks going forward. Targets remain in the range of 13600-13800.  On even shorter term, one can though not exclude for one more dip before the rally happens, although we would favor a nearby rally later today or by tomorrow.

The view remains valid as long as prices hold above 12510.

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