Medium Term Outlook LME Copper, May 3rd 2016

Revisiting the analysis published on Oct. 19th 2015, copper was expected to make new lows into the new year and thereafter rebound putting an end to the downtrend it has been going through since 2011. An exhausting long 5 years journey of little hope and lots of disappointment. In the charts below red line shows the expected path as drawn in 2015, clearly the forecast was not bearish enough on the short term, as price fell directly into target zone shortly after.

Here we are in 2016 and it seems so far that the call made 6 months ago is translating into reality. Again being in early stages of a trend, things are always open to sudden changes. In Copper key level as of now stands at the Jan 2016 low 4318. In the near term, price is expected to drift lower, however it should not break below 4318. In below charts the possible path identified in yellow lines. In a more bullish scenario price might hold above 4631. A break through 5438 would add a confirmation of an established uptrend. As long as price is trading below that figure, an alternate bearish scenario would call for another dip in prices later in 2016. As of now, we keep that on plan “b” basis and it would come into play only if price breaks 4318 to the downside.

Copper Weekly

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Copper Daily

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Medium Term Outlook Nickel, May 2nd 2016

In last article dating slightly over 6 months, it was forewarned that the downtrend might carry into early 2016 but not much beyond.  Now in 2016, here we are having seen the worst and prices are on the rise. Every dip is being bought which indicates a change in the sentiment towards a more bullish outlook. The worst news was happening in Dec 2015 and early 2016 on fundamental side, which only added to my conviction that the trend is wrapping up. Now stories started to look different in the news. It is sometimes amusing to observe how news fits the price action and really tell you nothing more than what you can already see in the price. News should be called olds as there is really nothing new about news.

Below is an updated chart on Nickel showing the downtrend sequence as complete and over (lines in red are the line drawn 6 months ago indicating future direction). The new uptrend is still shaky and fragile. So while a bullish view is favored, any sudden changes can reverse our short term outlook. However as long as key levels are held, the new baby bull is safe. The key level in Nickel for now is 8240, any break below that level would negate the immediate price rise. On the positive side, any price acceleration beyond 10700 would confirm the trend change to more bullish outlook that could take prices to 30000 and beyond in couple years to come. On the daily chart, the yellow lines indicate the possible price path over the month of May and sebsquent months. Again, the bullish view remains intact ONLY if 8240 is not broken to the downside.

Nickel Weekly Count

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Nickel Daily Count

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Outlook into 2016 and beyond: Nickel, Copper, Aluminium, Zinc, Lead

No wonder that that past 4 years from the 2011 highs in most of base metals, have been among toughest years seen in a while. The only good news is that probably now, near term future might look brighter. Most of the metals have been going through a correction that has exhausted not only prices, but traders as well. It has been turbulent 4 years that probably are just about to be over.

I say just, as it seems we might still have one more shake into 2016. Below I present my views on the various metals in charts, I would be glad to explain in details with price targets for interested parties. The short red lines on the chart, indicate the probable direction over time and potential price zones without specific targets.

There are multiple possibilities on how to count these charts, I have chosen these specific counts after several amendments, I believe keeping the count simple should work best. Alternative counts would indicate that metals are already in early stages of a new bullish rise having bottomed in August. I would gladly adopt that view, however price action so far leaves room for doubt and hence I have settled for the counts presented below:

Nickel Weekly Count

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Nickel Daily Count

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Copper Weekly Count

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Copper Daily Count

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Aluminium Weekly Count

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Aluminium Daily Count

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Zinc Weekly Count

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Zinc Daily Count

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Lead Weekly Count

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Lead Daily Count

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Short Term Nickel Update Oct 5th, 2015

Good Morning Traders!

It has been a month since our last post! Mainly due to the not so eventful price action. Prices traded in range throughout Sep. In our last post, I was looking for price to tick a little bit higher before resuming larger downtrend.

Price did travel higher after the post however peaked at 10475 and then drifted lower over the course of 12 days to 9605 to again go higher and peak at 10595.  Price somehow worked out as foretasted to hold above low of 9215 and peak by end Sep (price peaked on Oct 1st) but certainly momentum was weaker than expected and price did not come close enough to 11000.

That said it remains open to be seen if 9215 could hold through October as well. I don’t have my hopes high on this possibility. Fruther range trading expected in October.

Short Term Nickel Update Sep 3rd, 2015

It has been about 10 days since my last post. Markets have not done anything to surprise (despite sharp declines seen and thereafter reversals).

For Nickel after the overnight swift crash from 10400 to 9100 and thereafter recovery to 10600 on August 12 (all this happened when most of western hemisphere was sleeping), I was looking for a retest of 9100. Price came very close and again got rejected at 9215! With the highest high so far at 10220 on August 28 and looks like we are about to break that soon today.

I am still considering two possible scenarios (as one should always do!), the optimistic and the less optimistic :). In my last post, I have mentioned that I would be looking for a recovery by End Q3/early Q4. It seems that this recovery is well under way and I am calling for 9215 to hold for a while. However, I have been questioning whether this recovery will hold through the cold winter. This is yet to be seen. The optimistic scenario is that this recovery would continue throughout the winter and into 2016 hence announcing an end to the horrible decline so far. The less optimistic would see this recover falter and we hit new lows during winter, however this would put a sure end to the 4 year bear market.

First chart is less optimistic route and the second chart is the optimistic route (one of possible variations). I will be posting specifics on numbers and levels along as things develop.

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Quick update on Commodities, August 23rd 2015

We are at critical levels across several instruments. While most world equities have either started a good sized decline or just on the verge of doing so. Commodities still struggle to find their place. Regarding base metals, several signals are pointing to the exhaustion of the long term down trend, indicating a turning point should not be all that far off.

However we are still to await for a confirmation of a new uptrend. On short term we might be heading slightly lower before we head back up into early Q4. However as it looks now, the second half of Q4 will be a rather bloody one going into Jan 2016.

If the short term run expected in early Q3 extends, I will be more than happy to announce an end to the bloodshed.  This in light of available info still remains questionable.