It has been about 10 days since my last post. Markets have not done anything to surprise (despite sharp declines seen and thereafter reversals).
For Nickel after the overnight swift crash from 10400 to 9100 and thereafter recovery to 10600 on August 12 (all this happened when most of western hemisphere was sleeping), I was looking for a retest of 9100. Price came very close and again got rejected at 9215! With the highest high so far at 10220 on August 28 and looks like we are about to break that soon today.
I am still considering two possible scenarios (as one should always do!), the optimistic and the less optimistic :). In my last post, I have mentioned that I would be looking for a recovery by End Q3/early Q4. It seems that this recovery is well under way and I am calling for 9215 to hold for a while. However, I have been questioning whether this recovery will hold through the cold winter. This is yet to be seen. The optimistic scenario is that this recovery would continue throughout the winter and into 2016 hence announcing an end to the horrible decline so far. The less optimistic would see this recover falter and we hit new lows during winter, however this would put a sure end to the 4 year bear market.
First chart is less optimistic route and the second chart is the optimistic route (one of possible variations). I will be posting specifics on numbers and levels along as things develop.