Short Term Outlook June 3rd 2015

Nickel Price yesterday declined 12820 as has been expected, then rallied back 13124. However, we have anticipated a slightly deeper decline. That said, we would be now be more inclined to believe that the bottom at 12510 should hold and the next 2 weeks going forward. Targets remain in the range of 13600-13800.  On even shorter term, one can though not exclude for one more dip before the rally happens, although we would favor a nearby rally later today or by tomorrow.

The view remains valid as long as prices hold above 12510.


Short Term Outlook Nickel 3M LME Contract –

Looking at Recent Peak from May 6th, we were looking at prices to bottom between 12400 and 12600. Prices so far have bottomed at 12510 and have since then rallied to a peak of 13090. Today we are looking for prices to retrace some or all the gain that has been made since 12510.

Looking at the subdivisions of the move from May 6th, we have two possible routes going forward. If price manages to hold ground of 12510 this would indicate that the decline down is complete and we would be looking on further price increases to build by end this week/next week. Target for this are at 13500-13800 expected to be achieved by third/fourth week June.

However, if prices don’t manage to hold ground then expect further decline into mid next week and look for a bottom at 12100-12200. Only afterward we should see a rally going forward into fourth week June/Early July.

In conclusion, key to watch price action today to decide on next move forward. In either case, we are looking for a nearby bottom before we a short term rally.


Outlook On Nickel – LME 3M Contract

Looking at the price action from the peak of May 13th, 2014, the trend has been clearly down. I would though be looking for a bottom to form soon in the next month or two after which we should start a increase in prices this could last well into 2016.  I will be focusing on short term action as the multi-year outlook is open to several interpretation in my view.

The decline from May 13th, 2014 is approaching a near end.

There will be more short term updates soon.